The Big Beautiful DisasterHow One Bill Threatens Arizona's Economy

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed the Senate 51-50 on July 1, 2025.Here's what it means for your wallet, your job, and your community.

+$500
Annual Bill Increase
2.17M
Jobs at Risk
300+
Rural Hospitals Closing
Part 1: How This Affects Your Family

The Hidden Cost of "Savings"

While your utility bills are already rising, Washington is eliminating the tools that help you fight back.

The U.S. Senate passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) on July 1, 2025, with a narrow 51-50 vote, signaling a significant shift in national energy policy.1 This budget reconciliation bill introduces substantial modifications and outright eliminations of numerous clean energy tax credits previously established under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).1 Proponents of the bill, primarily Republicans, assert that these changes will deliver historic savings for taxpayers and bolster traditional fossil fuel industries, thereby enhancing energy reliability.5However, a comprehensive analysis of these legislative changes reveals profound and interconnected consequences, particularly for states like Arizona. The proposed rollbacks are projected to escalate household energy costs, impede the growth of the clean energy sector, lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, and diminish overall grid reliability. Furthermore, the policy is poised to disproportionately affect rural communities, by simultaneously cutting essential services and promoting a narrow focus on fossil fuels. This report argues that the OBBBA represents a substantial retreat from the nation's clean energy progress, jeopardizing economic opportunity, energy affordability, and global competitiveness.

The Real Math: Tax Savings vs. Total Impact

What You Might Save

$500-1,500
Annual Tax Savings (est.)
Enhanced Standard Deduction
No Tax on Tips (up to $25K)
No Tax on Overtime (up to $12.5K)
$6K Senior Deduction (65+)

What You'll Actually Pay

+$800-1,200
Total Annual Increase (est.)
Utility Rate Hikes+$300-500
Lost Efficiency Savings+$500
Economic UncertaintyRisk
Reduced OpportunitiesRisk
Net Impact: -$300 to -$700 annually

Tax savings don't offset the total cost when utilities rise and energy-saving options disappear.

The $3.3 Trillion Question: Who Really Pays?

Congressional Budget Office Projection

Federal Deficit Increase (10 years):$3.3T
Conservative Estimates:$5T+
Credit Rating Impact:At Risk

Translation for Your Family

  • Higher borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans
  • Reduced government services as debt service increases
  • Economic uncertainty affecting job market
  • Future tax increases to address deficit

Your $500-1,500 tax savings today could cost your family thousands in the long run

Your Household Energy Bill: What's at Stake

The chart below shows potential annual savings from energy efficiency improvements that Arizona families will lose access to after December 31, 2025.

$500
Average Annual Savings Lost
Dec 31
Tax Credits Expire
14%
APS Rate Increase Proposed
Part 2: The Bigger Picture

America's Future Energy Economy Under Attack

Beyond your electric bill, this policy threatens millions of American jobs and our position in the global energy race.

Projected U.S. Clean Energy Job Losses by 2028

These aren't just statistics—they represent families, communities, and America's energy independence.

2.17 Million Jobs
Total Clean Energy Employment at Risk

Including 330,000 solar and storage jobs (SEIA) and 1.75 million construction jobs (AFL-CIO)

While America Steps Backward, China Races Ahead

As the U.S. dismantles clean energy incentives, China is aggressively expanding its dominance in future energy technologies. This isn't just about today's energy—it's about who controls tomorrow's economy.

What China Is Doing

  • Dominating solar panel manufacturing (80%+ global market share)
  • Leading battery production and critical mineral processing
  • Massive government investment in clean energy R&D
  • Building integrated supply chains for energy independence

What America Is Doing

  • Cutting clean energy manufacturing incentives
  • Eliminating tax credits for emerging technologies
  • Returning focus to declining fossil fuel industries
  • Creating uncertainty for clean energy investors

The Strategic Risk: Surrendering the 21st Century Tech Race

While China builds tomorrow's energy infrastructure, America risks becoming dependent on foreign technology for our own energy security. Read the Interactive Report for more details.

Grid Risk and Yesterday's Fuel: The Hidden Costs

Record Heat

AI data centers + population growth + extreme weather = peak demand surge

+

Fewer Tools

Solar, batteries, and efficiency credits eliminated = less grid flexibility

=

Grid Stress

Higher blackout risk + more volatile pricing + ratepayer exposure

The Carcinogen Risk: Environmental and Health Impacts

The bill's expedited relief from EPA regulations for coal, coupled with minimum land leases in rural areas, creates serious public health risks—particularly for communities already losing hospital access.

Airborne Carcinogens

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) from coal plants carries heavy metals and carcinogens, causing respiratory diseases, heart conditions, and cancers.

Water Contamination

Coal ash contains arsenic, lead, mercury, and chromium. Improper disposal contaminates groundwater and drinking water supplies.

Food Chain Impact

Heavy metals and toxins from coal emissions bioaccumulate in crops and livestock, entering the human food chain.

The Cruel Irony

Rural communities get more coal pollution while losing the hospitals needed to treat the resulting health problems.

Economic Reality: Coal vs. Solar When You Count All Costs

Coal's Hidden Costs
  • Extraction and transportation
  • Environmental damage and cleanup
  • Healthcare costs from pollution
  • Climate change impacts
  • Price volatility and market exposure
Solar's True Value
  • Dramatic cost reductions over past decade
  • No fuel costs or price volatility
  • Minimal environmental externalities
  • Long-term price stability
  • American manufacturing potential

When you count all costs—extraction, health, environment, volatility—solar frequently outcompetes coal

Part 3: The Rural Betrayal

Tax Breaks for Some,Devastation for Many

The bill's tax savings aren't distributed equally—and rural communities pay the highest price while receiving the smallest benefits.

The Unequal Distribution of Benefits

Urban/Suburban Households

Tax Savings Potential:Higher
Tip/Overtime Income:More Common
Healthcare Access:Maintained
Economic Opportunities:Diversified

Rural Households

Tax Savings Potential:Lower
Clean Energy Job Losses:Severe
Hospital Closures:300+ at Risk
Economic Diversification:Eliminated

The Rural Reality Check

$200-800
Potential Annual Tax Savings
-$2,000+
Lost Economic Opportunities
Priceless
Healthcare Access Lost

The Rural Double Bind: Small Gains, Massive Losses

While providing modest tax relief and $5B in coal credits, the bill simultaneously devastates rural infrastructure and opportunities.

$5B
Coal Tax Credits

Temporary support for declining industry

$87B
Rural Hospital Revenue Lost

300+ hospitals could close

Billions
Clean Energy Investment Lost

Economic diversification ended

Rural families get modest tax relief while losing their economic future and healthcare access

The fiscal burden of this bill—$3.3 trillion in deficits—will ultimately be paid by the same communities receiving the smallest benefits today.

Part 4: The Solution

A Comprehensive Energy Future

Arizona doesn't need to choose between economic growth and energy affordability. A complete clean energy ecosystem can deliver both—creating jobs across multiple industries, lowering bills, and strengthening our competitive position globally.

Solar & Wind Manufacturing

  • Solar panel and component production
  • Wind turbine manufacturing
  • Power electronics and inverters
855K
Solar & wind jobs nationwide

Battery & Storage Systems

  • Grid-scale battery storage
  • Home energy storage systems
  • Battery management technology
154K
Battery storage jobs

Smart Grid & Infrastructure

  • Smart meters and grid automation
  • Demand response systems
  • Microgrids and distribution
326K
Smart grid jobs

Energy Efficiency & Services

  • HVAC and building systems
  • LED lighting and controls
  • Energy auditing and consulting
725K
Efficiency sector jobs

Advanced Technologies

  • Clean hydrogen production
  • Geothermal energy systems
  • Advanced materials and R&D
115K
Advanced tech jobs

Electric Transportation

  • EV manufacturing and assembly
  • Charging infrastructure
  • Electric fleet and logistics
180K
EV sector jobs at risk

The Complete Clean Energy Ecosystem

2.35M
Total Clean Energy Jobs

Across manufacturing, installation, services, and advanced tech

$350B
Annual Economic Impact

Including manufacturing, services, and supply chain

ALL
Industries at Risk

Manufacturing, installation, R&D, and emerging tech

This isn't just about solar panels—it's about America's entire clean energy industrial base

The Bottom Line

"You can't fight inflation by raising prices and cutting the tools that help people save."

Smart energy policy creates jobs across multiple industries, lowers bills, and strengthens communities—without forcing false choices.

America can lead the clean energy future, or we can watch China build it without us.

References & Sources

This analysis draws from government sources, industry reports, academic research, and news coverage to provide a comprehensive view of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and its potential impacts on Arizona's energy future.

View the full report PDF here.

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